Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 19.458256 21.159687 23.039154 25.288859 27.935314 30.984503 34.816386
2024-10-13 16.911807 19.148856 21.803911 25.257667 29.745263 35.558561 44.000940
2024-10-20 14.967985 17.423527 20.488900 24.731094 30.696835 39.247339 53.515593
2024-10-27 14.116320 16.861753 20.458105 25.752829 33.850520 46.886069 72.913089
2024-11-03 13.058818 15.871397 19.679173 25.537796 35.081035 51.960339 91.703058
2024-11-10 12.291400 15.166502 19.174222 25.593962 36.700516 58.330641 120.027341
2024-11-17 11.688924 14.616626 18.805352 25.767878 38.528931 65.963760 164.370957
2024-11-24 11.165214 14.122425 18.450169 25.884893 40.260382 74.359378 235.100250
2024-12-01 10.628010 13.560177 17.926288 25.623060 41.164769 81.302297 334.152923
2024-12-08 10.216442 13.148971 17.592766 25.637577 42.648653 91.028518 557.848056
2024-12-15 9.800625 12.700513 17.156334 25.398006 43.507065 99.612895 1026.684279
2024-12-22 9.424299 12.286994 16.740359 25.138716 44.260020 108.710817 2677.139643
2024-12-29 9.080077 11.908101 16.361034 24.921633 45.130532 119.758591 206445.398041
2025-01-05 8.777245 11.576620 16.036549 24.774692 46.171775 133.396286 NaN
2025-01-12 8.430560 11.158252 15.535577 24.213858 45.965608 140.762105 NaN
2025-01-19 8.354441 11.162537 15.758799 25.174535 50.402203 186.173104 NaN
2025-01-26 8.104199 10.873716 15.447042 24.956413 51.247936 209.470028 NaN
2025-02-02 7.910845 10.667275 15.267179 25.005343 52.996422 249.112868 NaN
2025-02-09 7.746744 10.500186 15.145940 25.170205 55.230278 309.262901 NaN
2025-02-16 7.586095 10.330860 15.008720 25.281597 57.355608 390.432506 NaN
2025-02-23 7.389191 10.092733 14.729897 25.029449 58.053201 458.476774 NaN
2025-03-02 7.237145 9.923337 14.569271 25.043182 59.847958 596.610670 NaN
2025-03-09 7.064620 9.712659 14.319112 24.812771 60.585427 735.855303 NaN